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Record Inventories Push US Crude Below $45

US crude futures fell almost $2 to settle below $45 per barrel on Wednesday as news of a big increase in US crude inventories pushed stockpiles to all-time high of more than 400 million barrels.

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) -- the statistical arm of the US Department of Energy (DOE) -- reported that crude inventories jumped 8.8 million bbl last week to 406.7 million bbl, the highest level on record.

That was not quite as high as the 12.7 million bbl increase reported by the American Petroleum Institute (API) (OD Jan.28'15), but it still pointed to a supply glut as US production remains well above 9 million barrels per day (related).

"Today’s oil inventory report showed another monster crude build ... The builds seen over the past two weeks are unequivocally bearish and mark the largest two-week increase in almost 30 years," Mike Tran of CIBC said in a market commentary.

In London, March Brent crude futures lost $1.13 to settle at $48.47 per barrel. In New York, the March Nymex WTI futures contract lost $1.78 to close at $44.45. That left the spread between the two contracts at just over $4.

The overall increase in US inventories included a 2.1 million bbl build in Cushing, Oklahoma, the physical delivery point for the Nymex WTI futures contract. Stocks at Cushing have risen by almost 7 million bbl since the beginning of January to a total of 38.8 million bbl -- which represents more than half of the tank farm's operational capacity of 70 million bbl (OD Jan.23'15).

Analysts attributed the rise in US inventories to a combination of lower refinery throughputs because of unexpected events such as fires (OD Jan.13'15), early maintenance work and a forward price curve that has provided a growing financial incentive to store oil for sale in the future. However, opinions are divided as to the relative weight of these factors.

"The bounce-back in refinery throughputs this week suggests the stockbuild is more related to temporary events at refineries than heavy refinery maintenance," said Matt Smith of Schneider Electric.

US refineries' crude throughputs rose by 347,000 b/d to 15.2 million b/d last week, raising nationwide capacity utilization to 88%. Both numbers had moved lower during the previous week. 

The sideways trading pattern in oil prices over the past few weeks has prompted some talk that oil prices may have finally found a bottom and be poised for a rally. However, most near-term forecasts still point to oversupply and low prices during the first half of this year (OD Jan.26'15). "I'd be loath to say we’ve reached the bottom yet," Schneider said.